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Correction method of surface solar radiation forecast based on ZJWARMS
GU Tingting, PAN Yaying, ZHANG Jiayi
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2022, 40 (2): 327-332.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0327
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Using the radiation observational data at Hangzhou station and the hourly simulation output data by Zhejiang WRF ADAS real_time modeling system (ZJWARMS), the forecast effect of radiation was evaluated in 2019. On this basis, the MOS correction models under different weather conditions were built based on ten meteorological factors from ZJWARMS output, including shortwave radiation flux, cloud cover, surface temperature, humidity, etc. The results showed that ZJWARMS had a good ability in simulating the diurnal variations of surface solar radiation, the correlation coefficient between simulation value and observation value of radiation was 0.82. However, the system generally overestimated surface solar radiation. The lowest error appeared on sunny days, while there was a significant increase of error on overcast days or rainy days. The correction model could effectively improve the prediction effect of surface solar radiation. After the correction of MOS model, the mean absolute percentage error decreased from 273.4% to 46.3%, and the root mean square error dropped from 246.7 W·m-2 to 105.0 W·m-2. The correction effect exited difference in different months, and that in August was the best, and the mean absolute percentage error decreased from 126.6% to 26.3%, while the correction error was larger in April, the mean absolute percentage error was 56.6%.

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